Frederick ponders the fate of the Conservative Party.

The Fate of the Conservative Party

 

As I write this, the United Kingdom’s Conservative and Unionist party seems close to implosion. Though Downing Street has been consistently blue for the past 9 years, Tory leadership hasn’t been wholly successful. Austerity measures employed by David Cameron’s government since 2010 have been deeply unpopular, with roughly $40 billion in cuts to housing subsidies, welfare payments and social services. A United Nations expert said that cuts in government spending were “entrenching high levels of poverty and inflicting unnecessary misery in one of the richest countries in the world”. The doubling of the use of foodbanks between 2013 and 2017 is testimony to this.

 

The B word has also dogged the Conservative leadership with uncertainty and controversy since 2016. The resignation of David Cameron in June of that year after the remain campaign which he supported lost, marked the beginning of the end of relative political stability. The Brexit monster has already chewed up and spat out one Prime Minister in Theresa May, who repeatedly failed to pass an unpopular withdrawal deal through the Commons.  The stubborn EU has refused to make any concessions and will not let the UK leave with a preferable free trade deal, while remaining outside the single market. Instead all they offered Theresa May’s government was a half in, half out proposal, with the country effectively becoming a vassal state to the federalist beast. The UK now stands on the precipice of a constitutional crisis, as although MPs rightly put down May’s proposals, it seems no alternative can gain a majority, with Parliament in stalemate.

 

The country is becoming fed up with the current political climate and Brexit stagnation and the Conservative party is taking the brunt of the blame. This can be seen in the local elections in May this year in which the Conservatives lost 44 councils and lost 1330 councillors. This was a loss of a third of councils it previously held. Furthermore, the European parliament elections later on in May this year was a telling story. Conservative Brexiteers disillusioned with the government’s feeble efforts at leaving the EU flocked in their hordes to Nigel Farage’s newly formed Brexit party. Overall the fledgling party won the highest share of the vote at 31.6% compared to the Tories who came 5th overall with only 9.1% of the overall vote. This was the worst performance by the Conservative party since 1832.

 

The growth of Brexit party marks a more threatening prospect however. Under Nigel Farage’s leadership, the party has been topping many general election opinion polls as well. This is bad news for the Tories, as it would split the vote from right wing voters between them and the Brexit party, leaving the door of Downing Street open for Jeremy Corbyn. It is hard to say the impacts of five years of Labour leadership, but high levels of spending as promised in their manifesto would certainly undo nearly a decade of trying to balance the budget through austerity and would certainly send Britain into a spiral of economic danger. Corbyn’s pledge to renationalise the railways would cost an estimated £176 billion according to the Centre for Policy studies. This represents around 10% of national debt, or around £6500 for every household. With the labour party also promising to nationalise water, energy and the Royal Mail, the eventual bill will be gargantuan and the burden of debt will be put on the shoulders of the British taxpayer. So, with Jeremy Corbyn and his contemporaries threatening economic disaster, it is more crucial than ever that a strong Conservative party must keep them out of power by winning back Brexiteers from what may appear the welcoming arms of Nigel Farage.

 

But how can they do this you may ask? The current leadership election is in full swing and by the time this article is published, we may be seeing a new Prime Minister. This is a turning point for the party. They can either carry on in the stagnant, reactionary manner that has plagued them for the past 30 years and they will haemorrhage, losing votes to the Brexit Party and ushering Labour into power on a red carpet. Or, they can take a new path. The new leader, be it Johnson or Hunt, must present the electorate with core Conservative values. The pair both self-describe as One-Nation Conservatives and they should be making it clear, offering policies based on the early One-Nation ideas set put by those such as Benjamin Disraeli or Harold Macmillan. Nothing would capture the hearts and minds more than a staunch commitment to an attractive ideology that demonstrates paternalism and compassion. Furthermore, for the Conservatives to survive they must get on and get Brexit done. A good deal that delivers on Britain’s wishes to continue trading largely tariff and quota free with the EU while remaining outside of the single market and customs union would be preferable. However, if it is not offered, and a half in-half out option is presented instead, it is up to the Conservative leader to take us out of the EU on the 31st October on WTO terms. Without getting dragged into an argument about the pros and cons of a no-deal Brexit, it is a fact of life that if Brexit is not delivered properly (outside the single market and customs union) then Tory Brexiteers will vote for Farage, splitting the vote and letting Corbyn snatch power. In this sense, if Brexit is not carried out by the 31st October, the Conservative party will wither away and die a painful death.